日期:2017-01-10 来源:集思录

NETSUITE(N)- 兼并套利 - 8.5%向上空间
Current Price –$100.52
Oracle 收购 NetSuite
当前价格 – 100.52美元
Offer price - $109
要约交割 – 109美元
Upside – 8.5%
向上空间 – 8.5%
Expiration date – 4th November 2016
到期时间 – 2016年11月4日
SEC filling

This is a bet that Oracle acquisition of NetSuite at $109/share will go through. Since the deal has been announced on the 28th of July, the shares traded close to or even above the offer price. Everyone was sure the deal was going through. But in the last week market’s opinion changed dramatically. Oracle’s CEO Larry Ellison beneficially owns 40% of NetSuite.

On the 7th of September the largest unaffiliated shareholder T. Rowe Price (18% stake) opposed the transaction essentially arguing that price is too low. Market hoped Oracle will come up with a higher offer, but that did not happen. Quite the opposite – Oracle extended the tender deadline for the second time (as it did not receive sufficient shares) and said this is the final extension – Oracle will walk away from acquisition if majority of unaffiliated shareholders do not tender. Oracle needs 20.4m NetSuite shares tendered for the transaction to go through.
在9月7日,最大的非关联股东T. Rowe Price(有18%股份)反对这项交易,认为收购价太低。市场希望Oracle会提高报价,但是并没有发生。恰恰相反,Oracle第二次延期了收购的最终日期(因为没有收到足够多的股份),而且说这次最终的延期。如果大多数非关联股东不同意收购,Oracle将取消这次并购。Oracle需要2040万股NetSuite同意这项交易完成。
Some more info and background here.
I admit I have no specific insight about this deal, and likely there are many much smarter guys playing this arbitrage. But my bet is that ORCL strategy of scarring NetSuite shareholders into taking the tender will work – these shareholders have already seen 10% drop in their NetSuite holdings over the last two weeks and probably they do not need any further convincing.
This is a tiny position for me due to the obvious risk that I can lose c. 15% if the deal gets cancelled. I do not believe the price will drop all the way to pre-announcement $75/share, as Oracle’s interest in NetSuite does not disappear even if the deal fails now.